A Proposed Model for Drug Demand Forecasting and Ordering Inventory System for Dengue Endemic

In a tropical country such as Indonesia, dengue fever has
become an endemic outbreak because it occurs almost every
year, especially in the beginning and towards the end of the
rainy season. Districts affected by dengue fever need accuracy
in predicting the number of patients and drugs. Hospitals need
a suitable drug order inventory system to treat dengue patients.
The objective of this paper is to develop a model with higher
accuracy and suitability. We propose a two-phase model with
several steps and methods to fulfill the objective of each phase.
In first phase, we determine a drug forecasting method to
predict the number of patients and drug demand. In the second
phase, we determine the drug order system (continuous review
and periodic review) including the optimal quantities,
frequencies, safety stock, and reorder point. The proposed
model was then applied in a hospital in Sidoarjo. The results show that the proposed model can be applied in the district and the hospital; and the drug demand forecasting and ordering system resulted in optimal inventory and costs. This study proposed a new multi-phased model that can be used in drug demand forecasting and ordering system, with practical benefits for hospitals and the healthcare systems.